Logic dictates that there is no such thing as home court advantage in the UAAP. Since abandoning the Blue Eagle Gym as a venue for games a few seasons ago, matches between the eight member schools have been held at neutral venues, most notably the Araneta Coliseum. And while a loud, boisterous crowd might be able to tilt things slightly in favor of one squad over another, there is no truly hostile environment, no hometown cooking.
But when the UAAP Finals roll around, things change, especially when one of the teams lining up is the Ateneo Blue Eagles. Tri-captain Kirk Long said it best last year, even before the Eagles had claimed their third straight title: “The UAAP Finals is sort of our home ground.”

And the team backed him up, running the Far Eastern University Tamaraws off the court in the first game, and then surviving an emotional Tams squad that burned out before the final buzzer.

Now these two teams are back, with one side hoping for a reversal of fortunes. But even though there are significant holdovers from that FEU squad that got swept, the Blue Eagles are still quietly confident that this is once again their time, their title, their home ground.

Here are four reasons why Ateneo will win its fourth straight UAAP title.

Reason 1: A Superior Defense

Head coach Norman Black believes that his team embodies the way he used to play in the PBA. They are big, they are defense-first, and they shut down the paint.

There aren’t a lot of defensive categories the Eagles do not dominate. They hold opponents down to the worst three-point shooting percentage and two-point shooting percentage, and the worst shooting percentage in the paint, giving up just 25 points down low per game.

Ateneo also concedes the fewest offensive rebounds, just 14.29 a game, and do not allow opponents to get out and run, slowing foes down to just 6.36 transition attempts for 7.29 fast break points.

But it’s when you put those numbers into context that one truly grasps how scary Ateneo can be. In the two games they played versus FEU this UAAP season, the Eagles have shut down the three-headed monster of FEU, allowing Aldrech Ramos just 5 of 19 shooting, RR Garcia 14 of 42, and Terrence Romeo 8 of 31. That will put additional pressure on the FEU bench to compensate for the lack of scoring, except Ateneo does a sterling job of guarding opponents’ reserves, giving up just 22.29 points to players off the bench.

Reason 2: The Ateneo Attack

Squads sometimes have to compromise when it comes to player rotations, looking for a balance between scoring and defense, but Ateneo’s roster boasts numerous two-way players: guys who are just as good at denying an entry pass, as they are dishing one out.

In fact, Ateneo boasts of the top-ranked offense in the league, as the only team to norm more than 70 points, 71.14 to be exact. They do this by devoting just a small chunk of their shot selection to low-percentage, perimeter shots, opting instead to take it inside early and often.

Numerically, that translates to the fewest three-pointers attempted and converted, 2.57 out of 12.21. But it does give Ateneo the best two-point percentage and the best overall field goal percentage as well. Due in large part to one Mr. Greg Slaughter, the Eagles get the most conversions inside the paint, 17.36, leading to 34.71 points in the paint per game. “We’re the only team in the league with a seven-footer,” Black famously said. “So we really want to take advantage of that.”

But while Slaughter is the most obvious reason behind Ateneo’s efficient offense, having the most assists per game in the UAAP (17.57) helps a lot as well. And a good deal of those assists come from when Ateneo is running the break, which they do a lot, to the tune of 11.79 attempts for 14.64 points.

Combine that with the big fella, and not only do you see a lot of fancy moves and dunks, you get a lot of fouls from beleaguered opponents trying to stop you. Ateneo draws the most fouls of any team, 21.14 per game, a figure that leads to 24.71 free throws a game. Good thing then the Eagles are the best team at the line, converting 72.83 percent of their charities.

Reason 3: Been There, Done That

The side effect of having the longest active final four streak, as well as winning three straight titles is the wealth of experience you give to not just your stars, but to the guys on the bench who eventually become your stars.

Starters Kirk Long, Emman Monfort and Nico Salva have won three titles, and so have bench players Justin Chua, Bacon Austria and Tonino Gonzaga. Oping Sumalinog, Juami Tiongson, and Frank Golla have been together for two of those wins. The only two main rotation guys who haven’t won a title as an Eagle yet happen to be Slaughter, who won titles with his team, the University of Visayas Green Lancers back in Cebu in the CESAFI league, and Kiefer Ravena, who won three-straight in the UAAP Juniors Division as a Blue Eaglet.

This is a squad that is not going to panic, that is willing to sacrifice and do whatever it takes to win a title.

Admittedly, FEU has been on this stage as well, with those bright lights and with these high stakes, but being on the stage is a lot different from winning on the stage. When the Tamaraws split the regular season series with the Adamson Falcons, and then went on to beat them twice in the final four, head coach Bert Flores said that it helped that they were able to look back on two games during the summer league where they beat Adamson, as proof that the team had what it takes.

And though he’ll have tape of FEU winning both matches against Ateneo in last season’s elimination round, they probably don’t resonate as much, considering this incarnation of the Tams has yet to beat this version of Ateneo, not even in the summer preseason tournaments.

Reason 4: Coach Norman Black and his staff

The second round meeting between these two teams can perhaps be best summarized tactically as FEU’s “kitchen sink” game, wherein they threw out virtually every trick up their sleeve at the Eagles and still lost in overtime. Ateneo’s Coach Black remembers identifying that the Tamaraws were running triangle offense sets from last season’s regime, and when that was countered, FEU turned to pick and pops with Ramos. When Ramos was finally sat down due to fouls, FEU then switched back to their old offense. And the Eagles coaching staff somehow managed to solve all of those within 45 minutes. So even if FEU sends in JR Cawaling or Pipo Noundou for a Willis Reed type moment, the Blue and White can feel confident knowing that Ateneo will likely have a counter waiting for them.

I also wouldn’t put a lot of faith in a team huddle that includes several assistant coaches yelling things contrary to what the head coach is saying, plus the team manager, and an athletic director who has the authority to call for timeouts.

Prediction

More than getting an elimination round sweep, repeating for the fourth straight year has always been the main goal of Ateneo, and it’s hard to imagine them faltering this close to the end. The Eagles simply have more weapons in this match-up, are a better defensive squad, and have the advantage of having beaten FEU twice, once in a blowout and then by a small margin. That is not to say that FEU will not go down fighting; in fact, I do not expect a blowout win like what we saw a season ago in game one. But the Tamaraws need a lot of things to go right for them to pull off an upset, and getting those things to go right for two games, will require more than a couple of miracles.

Ateneo Blue Eagles win the championship series in two games

source:  Adrian M. Dy -InterAKTV